A recent CBS/YouGov poll found broad support for Trump’s plan to deport all undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S., with 62% of registered voters backing such an effort.
Crucially, the plan is highly popular with swing voters and white working-class voters, both key groups that helped propel Trump to victory in 2016 by swinging Rust Belt states like Wisconsin and Michigan to the Republicans.
Two-thirds of swing voters and nearly three-quarters of white Americans without a college degree support mass deportations.
“In the 10 states with the largest share of white voters without college degrees, Trump beat his polling average by an average of 8 percentage points — a major polling miss,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver wrote.
“Overall, the correlation between the share of white non-college voters in a state and the amount by which Trump overperformed his polls is quite high.”
Support from these wavering demographics in critical states could secure another win for Trump in 2020 by over-performing among historically low-turnout groups like the white working-class, as Nate Silver’s analysis showed happened in 2016.
